Do Republicans Still Vote Conservatively?

The question: are Republican voters actually voting in line with conservative values, or just voting Republican? This paper tests it empirically using social capital indicators (family unity, religious congregations, collective efficacy, institutional trust) against Republican vote share across 2,889 US counties in the 2016 election. The answer is largely yes — family unity (β=0.08), collective efficacy (β=0.09), and religious congregations (+6% vote share per congregation per 1k residents) all significantly predict Republican outcomes. Institutional Health runs negative, which fits the small-government skepticism narrative. The more interesting finding: these effects more than doubled in smaller counties, suggesting that in tight-knit communities, social norms carry more weight than they do in anonymous urban ones.

Course: EC 117 Economics of Social Interactions